If the explanations you're demanding for what works aren't working, perhaps it's because you're avoiding nuance in exchange for simplicity.
It would take Lee Clow far more than five minutes to explain how to design an ad that works. Clive Davis didn't have the words to tell you what would make a hit record. Even the ostensibly simple food of Alice Waters can't be easily copied by an amateur.
And yet your boss keeps asking you to explain your whole plan in three Powerpoint slides.
The VC who allocates one minute to understand why your business will work has done everyone no favors. The blog reader who clicks away after a paragraph wasted his time visiting at all.
Skip the complicated, time-consuming part at your own risk. The cycle of test and failure works largely because it exposes us to nuance.
If it were obvious, everyone would do it. Wait, that's too simple. How about this: Nuance and subtlety aren't the exception in changing human behavior. They're the norm.