The best plans are based on trends, not specific events.
Here's a hopeless task: There are 18 candidates in the GOP race.
If you can rank them in the order they're going to drop out, I'll give you a signed copy of my new book or $10,000, your choice. The chances of being correct are 1:18!, or about one in six quadrillion, so I think the prize is safe.
When in doubt, pick projects where the factors you need to have in place are on the road the audience is already on.