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When your marketplace shifts

It might happen to you.

Many markets have a base (people seeking a solution), a middle (people seeking some originality, something new, something a little better) and a top (educated and passionate consumers willing to go extra miles to get something special).

Here's what happens (imagine travel agents, for example, or the farmers' markets in France):

A. a disruption happens to the marketplace, instantly sucking the base out of the market. When was the last time you called a travel agent? Or, in the case of France, the hypermarche destroyed the need to wait for the weekly market to get some eggs and some carrots.

B. without a base, merchants have to struggle to attract enough business to stick around and to invest in getting better. Many of these merchants either don't have the skills, the resources or the good taste to build a business without the base. They slowly, and painfully, disappear.

C. A few flee to the top. These are the folks with great heirloom tomatoes for sale, or the ones who specialize in high-end cruises or adventure travel. But it's tough going, because without the base and the middle, every sale is on a knife's edge, every customer realizes how much power she has.

The marketplace disruption puts huge pressure on any merchant who merely created a commodity. This means vineyards, graphic designers, photographers, etc.

When you see it coming, there are only two choices:

Run like hell to a new market, or,

Move up, faster and more boldly than anyone thinks is rational.

Two quality spirals worth avoiding

The downward quality spiral: You cut some corners, saving some time and some money.

For a little while, you can coast on that.

But then demand goes down, you can't get the same pricing, there's less money, which means you can't invest, which means quality goes down again, and again, and then you lose.

Or, consider the other direction:

You improve what you make, you invest the time and effort and resources and you make the best thing you can imagine.

The crowd goes wild, you get more invitations, more revenue, more opportunities.

And then you exceed expectations again.

It's great, until. Until you become paralyzed. Until you decide (mistakenly) that you are in the exceeding expectations business. That can't possibly scale forever. So you stop.

And then we all lose.

Seeing a spiral coming is the key step in avoiding it.

The productive professional realizes that keeping promises is often enough. Randomly exceeding those promises is magical. But the key is 'randomly'. Unexpected delight is priceless, and something you can deliver on.

We need you to keep showing up.

[Today, Monday, is the last day to order my titanic new collection, What Does It Sound Like When You Change Your Mind, if you want delivery before the holidays. You can find out more about it right here. I'm so pleased at how it all came together. (Canadians, alas, your copies are caught in Customs, but we're trying mightily.)

Here are some unboxing photos

And Your Turn, my most recent full-length book can most probably get to you in time for gift giving as well. Thanks.]

Most vs. Enough

It's easy to be confused about the difference.

"Most" as in the best, the fastest, the cheapest.

"Enough" as in good enough. And that means just what it sounds like.

If you run an ambulance company, you need to be the fastest at response. (The "most quick"). Anything else is a reason for potential users to switch.

On the other hand, if you're delivering flowers, 'fast enough' is plenty fast.

Everyone competes on something. That thing you compete on is your most. The other things you do, those need to be enough.

The two mistakes organizations and freelancers make:

  1. They try for 'most' at things where 'enough' is just fine, and they waste their effort.
  2. They settle for 'enough' when the market is looking for the one with the 'most'.

The only way to maximize your most is to be really clear where your enough is.

One way to think about talent

If you've worked hard for it, it's a skill.

If it's something that other people have that you believe you can't possibly achieve, it's a talent.

Of course, they think the same thing about your skill, don't they?

Being jealous of talents that are actually skills is a great way to let yourself off the hook and make yourself miserable at the same time.

Two kinds of winning

Some can only win when others lose.

Others seek to win by helping others succeed.

One of these approaches scales far better than the other.

“Missed it by that much”

Here's an interesting choice that most people leave unmade:

How comfortable are you engaging in projects where there's a likelihood that you'll lose by just a hair?

What makes a project worthwhile and interesting is that it might not work. All the this-is-sure-to-work projects are taken.

Given that you're taking a risk, what kind are you up for?

Are you seeking out areas where there's no competition, true longshots where few people see you fail?

Or are you okay with the daring near misses?

Catching up on your reading

Joi Ito and Jeff Howe have a new book called Whiplash. Joi's the head of MIT's Media Lab and an extraordinary thinker. Jeff brings the ideas and the lessons of the Lab to life. This is a big think, well worth a deep dive.

The Knowledge, Steve Pressfield's new book, is put together like a Swiss watch. Every single word, every scene… it's a master class in what it means to get out of your own way and write a book that works. I am walking around the house, unable to put it down.

In the last week, I discovered that at least two of my smart friends hadn't read Godel, Escher, Bach. They have now. You should too.

Jenny Blake wants to help you manage your career. Bill Taylor will help you manage your organization's future. And Nancy Duarte will help you think differently about the way you communicate.

Novels: The Windup Girl and Pattern Recognition are chock full of images and ideas that will stick with you for months.

As we head toward the end of the year, I think you'll find inspiration in the work of people who show up and do the work. Daily. For decades. Jacqueline Novogratz and her classic book, The Blue Sweater continue to change lives.  As does Jim Ziolkowski's amazing true story. This is what happens when people step up, keep their promises and make things happen.

And, if you're looking for the biggest possible book as a present or keepsake, this is the last minute to order my 18 pound collectible. It's shipping now

Community standards

"What's it like around here?"

It's a fair question to ask about an office, a home, a town…

"Why do people act like that, talk like that, treat others that way?"

The only reason they do is because we let them. People can't violate community standards for long without being asked to leave the community. Either that, or the standards change.

The other person is always right

Always right about feelings.

About the day he just experienced.

About the fears (appropriate and ill-founded) in his life.

About the narrative going on, unspoken, in his head.

About what he likes and what he dislikes.

You'll need to travel to this place of 'right' before you have any chance at all of actual communication. 

The myth of quick

In his day job, The Wizard of Oz sold hokum. Patent medicines guaranteed to cure what ailed you. And none of them worked.

Deep within each of us is the yearning for the pill, the neck crack, the organizational re-do that will fix everything.

Sometimes, it even happens. Sometimes, once in a very rare while, there actually is a stone in our shoe, easy to remove. And this rare occurrence serves to encourage our dreams that all of our problems have such a simple diagnosis and an even simpler remedy.

Alas, it’s not true.

Culture takes years to create and years to change.

Illnesses rarely respond in days to a treatment.

Organizations that are drowning need to learn to swim.

Habits beat interventions every time.

Consider these boundaries…

Avoid the crash diet.

Fear the stock that’s a sure thing to double overnight.

Be skeptical of a new technology that’s surely revolutionary.

Walk away from a consultant who can transform your organization in one fell swoop.

Your project (and your health) is too valuable to depend on lottery tickets.

There are innovations and moments that lead to change. But that change happens over time, with new rules causing new outputs that compound. The instant win is largely a myth.

The essential elements of a miracle are that it is rare and unpredictable. Not quite the reliable path you were seeking.